Decisions by the U.S. President and Congress have a direct effect on technology policies which in turn impact the everyday business of the IT channel. To this end, CompTIA kicked off the political season with a bang at AMM, inviting renowned pollster, author and opinion leader John Zogby to share his insights on the presidential election. Here’s a quick scoop on what he said.
Obama’s job performance rating is back up to 47 percent, and if the election were held today, President Obama would defeat Governor Romney 45 percent to 36 percent. That remaining 19 percent – the undecided – can sway the election results in a big way.
Obama won in 2008 with four key demographics:
- Hispanics: 69 percent of Latinos – a higher percentage than normal for a Democratic candidate – voted for Obama in 2008. Latinos made up 9.2 percent of the vote in 2008, but for 2012 it will increase to 11 percent of the total. Currently Latinos are giving Obama a 61-percent performance approval rating. No current Republican candidate has moved beyond 24 percent of the Hispanic vote, plus the Republicans have taken a hard stance on immigration.
- African Americans: 11 percent of this group voted in 2008, and they gave 95 percent of their votes to Obama. Zogby projects that Obama will get 90 to 92 percent of their votes in 2012 even though there has been some unrest with this group about Obama not delivering on campaign promises fast enough.
- Young people (18-29 years old): This group voted with a sense of destiny in 2008. Zogby classified them as America’s first generation of global citizens – the majority has active passports and is more tuned into the world and its needs. They are the least likely generation to go to war. Zogby claimed that this group got Obama into the Presidency. But this group is not simply disappointed, they are now scared. The recession has hit and for some of them, they have not gotten started in their careers due to the high unemployment trend – however that doesn’t necessarily translate into Republican support. Zogby said that they’re predisposed to align as Libertarians. As such they are more likely to support Ron Paul and the Libertarians, eroding votes that President Obama may need to get re-elected. Obama got 67 percent of their vote in 2008 and they turned out in record numbers.
- Creative class: This group bodes about 35 million people in cities and suburbs who work in the knowledge industry – artisans, designers, doctors, teachers, etc. Obama convinced them that he was the road to the future in 2008 and the Republicans were the road to the past. Zogby noted that today this bloc of voter seems to favor Obama. Nevertheless, this is tepid support in that they are not necessarily pro-Obama so much as they are dismayed with the Republican options. This will be a bloc to keep an eye on.
Zogby went on to give some recommendations on what each party needs to do to win the election. For the GOP, it needs to unify itself. He observed, however, that the rifts are deep and that it may be that antipathy of Obama is the only unifying force. In his advice to Romney, Zogby recommends, “Don’t be who you are not. Be at the plant gates every morning to hear the workers’ stories.” Zogby observed that in the absence of a strong personal story, Governor Romney should showcase how he got things done in business and as governor of Massachusetts.
For Obama, Zogby recommends, “Take control and reign in your staff. Show your leadership.”
Zogby warned that we’re at a record low in the confidence level in any of our institutions – churches, governments, schools, etc. – for any age group. Only small business / entrepreneurship is gaining strong confidence levels.
Tech entrepreneurship is one of the main platforms for CompTIA’s public advocacy efforts. Want to get more involved? Consider joining our Public Advocacy Council. Contact Matthew Evans for more information.
Watch the video recording of this session to get Zogby’s full presentation and check back with our blog for future updates on the 2012 election.
