In the wake of Tim Cook’s appearance at D11, technology pundits are eagerly dissecting his speaking points to determine what might be happening at Apple. There is more than a little disappointment being voiced, primarily because people are wondering when Apple – or anyone – is going to change the world again. What’s missing from all the analysis is the recognition that the world may not drastically change in the near future; that technology in general is maturing rather than continuing to offer explosive innovations.
The trends section of CompTIA’s 2013 IT Industry Outlook described this year as a period where companies will progress along the adoption curve of recently introduced technologies. In just six years, smartphones have gone from a futuristic novelty to an everyday device. Similarly, tablets have become commonplace only in the past three years. With only 24 percent of companies in CompTIA’s latest mobility report reporting that they have formal mobility policies, it’s clear that we are still in the early stages of determining how these new mobile devices will best play in the business world. Cloud computing is not much older; Amazon Web Services was launched in 2006 and my experience at the Cloud Connect conference in April certainly suggests that IT firms and departments are still making progress with the cloud model.
The ripples from these recent disruptions go beyond organizational policies and procedures. As the nature of digital transactions and workloads is changing, the technology that powers personal computing is making its way into the data center. Companies like SeaMicro are redefining server construction and ARM is becoming more of a challenge to Intel at the processor level.
Adjusting to these types of changes will take years, if not decades. At an even more foundational level, processor fabrication is beginning to run up against physical limitations, and new transistor designs are being developed to keep Moore’s Law on track. All together, the signs point to an intense period of innovation slowing as companies absorb changes and prepare for a new wave.
The takeaway for the smaller firms that make up the vast majority of the IT channel and the global economy is that now is the time to adopt and adjust. Many firms take a wait-and-see approach with new technology, primarily because they do not have resources or bandwidth to attack every new trend. With newer technologies now well established, companies should take action to understand how they can improve their current business practices and also move into new areas. CompTIA’s channel training in mobility and cloud computing can help solution providers understand these areas and build out their offerings to help clients move forward.
The world is wondering where the great new inventions are and expects the pace of technology change to continue unabated. The fact that Apple has not held a major event since September may not be because it doesn’t have anything to show. Tim Cook may realize that the pace of the last several years is unsustainable and that lightning can only be caught so many times. He may be adjusting expectations for the long run, even though it’s painful in the short run.
Apple’s transition from the leadership of Steve Jobs to Cook’s is reminiscent of another changing of the guard, when Sam Palmisano took over for Lou Gerstner as president and CEO of IBM. Expectations were high and Palmisano’s reception was harsh, with IBM’s stock price hitting a four-year low seven months after he was appointed CEO and hovering well below Gerstner levels for the next four years. At the end of his tenure, though, IBM had solidified its position as a premier global company, having celebrated 100 years of business and achieving all-time highs in stock price.
Looking back, Palmisano was regarded as a great CEO not for flashy moments of innovative brilliance but for steady success in navigating a challenging environment. Instead of spending energy scrambling for the next big thing, smart companies will extend their capabilities to work with what is currently available, planning for long-term success and not isolated victories.
