2018: Flying Cars, the IT Workforce and You

Just about every water cooler discussion I’ve ever been a part of on the future of technology inevitably leads to mention of flying cars and/or robots. People can’t seem to resist criticizing the state of technology for not providing certain innovations that were “promised” years ago, or dreaming about a futuristic world where helper robots free us from the doldrums of work and flying cars free us from the annoyances of traffic. It wasn’t long ago when a discussion of the “future” would mean a date such as 2018. To me at least, that still sounds quite futuristic even though it’s only 8 years away.  Yikes.

While we’ll most likely see greater utilization of robots by 2018 and flying cars are always an outside possibility, one thing is for sure: we’ll still be working and we’ll still be dealing with traffic! That begs the question, what will the US workforce look like in 2018? More specifically, what changes will take place in the IT workforce? The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) recently published Occupational Outlook Handbook provides a number of useful insights on where things may be heading.

According to the BLS, in 2008, core IT employment stood at slightly over 4 million workers. By 2018, this figure is expected to grow 20.3% to more than 4.8 million workers. Put another way, the BLS predicts 815,000 new workers will be employed in an IT capacity over the next few years. And, many more will be employed in tangential fields such as telecommunications, A/V, design, assembly work and numerous other tech-related occupations.

The largest net gains in employment will come in the areas of computer systems engineers for applications (+175,000), network systems and data communication analysts (+156,000) and computer systems engineers for systems software (+120,000).

To put these figures in context, the BLS expects the total US workforce to grow by 8.2%, trailing slightly the expected growth in the working age population (10.7%). Some categories such as manufacturing, mining, utilities and agriculture will experience declines over the next 8 years. Offsetting these reductions in workers will be gains in categories such as healthcare and social assistance (+24%), educational services (+12%), arts/entertainment (+15%) and several other categories that will increase at a rate near the overall rate.

Clearly, the data confirms the on-going transition of the US economy from production-based to knowledge-based products and services. At the center of this transition stands information technology.

Fastest Growing IT Occupations: 2008–2018 [Source: BLS]
53%    Network systems and data communications analysts
34%    Computer software engineers for applications
30%    Computer software engineers for systems software
24%    Computer and information scientists, research
23%    Network and computer systems administrators
20%    Computer systems analysts
20%    Database administrators
17%    Computer and information systems managers
14%    Computer support specialists

The data is positive for most IT occupations, but it’s worth noting that modest declines are expected for computer programmers (-3%) and computer/office machine repairers (-4%). The later serves as an example of the effects of disruptive business/technology models such as managed IT services or software-as-a-service.  These disruptive new business models can create new efficiencies, but can also displace workers.

So, what does this all mean? For employers, the big question will be – where will the projected nearly 1 million new IT workers come from? Will enough of today’s middle school and high school students choose a tech-oriented career path? If so, will affordable and effective educational opportunities be available in 2018 to provide students with “job ready” skills? Can enough displaced workers from contracting industries be retrained and redeployed to the IT field? How will employers manage and/or utilize an aging workforce (by 2018, the percent of workers in the 35-54 age category will shrink, while the 55+ category will jump significantly)?

To further complicate the equation, technology is never static. The growth rates projected by the BLS will undoubtedly change between now and 2018 as unanticipated innovations and market developments lead to entirely new categories of IT occupations (Green IT administrator? Healthcare IT engineer? Cloud computing systems analyst?).

If nothing else, it will be fun to watch the technology developments of the next decade. Here’s to flying cars and robots!